Amuch stronger action is needed to accelerate the transformation of the global energy system, says the IEA's latest World Energy Outlook. "The Copenhagen Accord and the agreement among G20 countries to phase out subsidies are important steps forward. But, these moves still fall a very long way short of what is required to set us on the path to a truly sustainable energy system," said Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director, International Energy Agency, at the launch of WEO-2010, which demonstrates that it is what governments do, and how that action affects technology, the price of energy services and end-user behaviour, that will shape the future of energy in the longer term.
Under the central scenario of the Outlook: the New Policies Scenario, world primary energy demand increases by 36 per cent between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2 per cent per year on average. The assumed policies make a tangible difference to energy trends: demand grew by 2 per cent per year over the previous 27-year period.
Non-OECD countries account for 93 per cent of the projected increase in world primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario. China, which IEA preliminary data suggests overtook the United States in 2009 to become the world's largest energy user despite its low per capita energy use, contributes 36 per cent to the projected growth in global energy use.
"It is hard to overstate the growing importance of China in global energy. How the country responds to the threats to global energy security and climate posed by rising fossil-fuel use will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world," Tanaka added.
China is at the forefront of efforts to increase the share of new low-carbon energy technologies, including alternative vehicles, which will help to drive down their costs through faster rates of technology learning and economies of scale, and boost their deployment worldwide.
Globally, fossil fuels remain dominant in the New Policies Scenario, though their share of the overall energy mix falls in favour of renewable energy sources and nuclear power. Oil nonetheless remains the leading fuel in the energy mix by 2035, followed by coal. Of the three fossil fuels, gas consumption grows most rapidly, its share of total energy use almost reaching that of coal.
The oil price is set to rise, reflecting the growing insensitivity of both demand and supply to price. In the New Policies Scenario, the average IEA crude oil price rises from just over $60 in 2009 to $113 per barrel (in year-2009 dollars) in 2035. Oil demand continues to grow steadily, reaching about 99 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2035, 15 mb/d higher than in 2009. All of the net growth comes from non-OECD countries, almost half from China alone; demand in the OECD actually falls, by over 6 mb/d.
Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of just under 69 mb/d by 2020 while production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and unconventional oil, notably Canadian oil sands, grows strongly.
"Renewable energy can play a central role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and diversifying energy supplies, but only if strong and sustained support is made available," Tanaka said.
In the New Policies Scenario, government intervention in support of renewables (electricity from renewables and biofuels) increases from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion (in 2009 dollars) by 2035. The share of modern renewable energy sources, including sustainable hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern biomass and marine energy, in global primary energy use triples between 2008 and 2035 and their combined share in total primary energy demand increases from 7 per cent to 14 per cent.
The energy trends envisioned in the New Policies Scenario imply that national commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, while expected to have some impact, are collectively inadequate to meet the Copenhagen Accord's overall goal of holding the global temperature increase to below 2°C. Rising demand for fossil fuels would continue to drive up energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions through to 2035, making it all but impossible to achieve the 2°C goal, as the required reductions in emissions after 2020 would be too steep.
In order to have a reasonable chance of achieving the goal, the concentration of greenhouse gases would probably need to be stabilised at a level no higher than 450 ppm CO2-eq. The 450 Scenario describes how the energy sector could evolve were this objective to be achieved.
The lack of ambition in the Copenhagen Accord pledges has increased the estimated cost of reaching the 2°C goal by $1 trillion and made it less likely that the goal will actually be achieved.
Under the central scenario of the Outlook: the New Policies Scenario, world primary energy demand increases by 36 per cent between 2008 and 2035, or 1.2 per cent per year on average. The assumed policies make a tangible difference to energy trends: demand grew by 2 per cent per year over the previous 27-year period.
Non-OECD countries account for 93 per cent of the projected increase in world primary energy demand in the New Policies Scenario. China, which IEA preliminary data suggests overtook the United States in 2009 to become the world's largest energy user despite its low per capita energy use, contributes 36 per cent to the projected growth in global energy use.
"It is hard to overstate the growing importance of China in global energy. How the country responds to the threats to global energy security and climate posed by rising fossil-fuel use will have far-reaching consequences for the rest of the world," Tanaka added.
China is at the forefront of efforts to increase the share of new low-carbon energy technologies, including alternative vehicles, which will help to drive down their costs through faster rates of technology learning and economies of scale, and boost their deployment worldwide.
Globally, fossil fuels remain dominant in the New Policies Scenario, though their share of the overall energy mix falls in favour of renewable energy sources and nuclear power. Oil nonetheless remains the leading fuel in the energy mix by 2035, followed by coal. Of the three fossil fuels, gas consumption grows most rapidly, its share of total energy use almost reaching that of coal.
The oil price is set to rise, reflecting the growing insensitivity of both demand and supply to price. In the New Policies Scenario, the average IEA crude oil price rises from just over $60 in 2009 to $113 per barrel (in year-2009 dollars) in 2035. Oil demand continues to grow steadily, reaching about 99 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2035, 15 mb/d higher than in 2009. All of the net growth comes from non-OECD countries, almost half from China alone; demand in the OECD actually falls, by over 6 mb/d.
Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of just under 69 mb/d by 2020 while production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and unconventional oil, notably Canadian oil sands, grows strongly.
"Renewable energy can play a central role in reducing carbon dioxide emissions and diversifying energy supplies, but only if strong and sustained support is made available," Tanaka said.
In the New Policies Scenario, government intervention in support of renewables (electricity from renewables and biofuels) increases from $57 billion in 2009 to $205 billion (in 2009 dollars) by 2035. The share of modern renewable energy sources, including sustainable hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, modern biomass and marine energy, in global primary energy use triples between 2008 and 2035 and their combined share in total primary energy demand increases from 7 per cent to 14 per cent.
The energy trends envisioned in the New Policies Scenario imply that national commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, while expected to have some impact, are collectively inadequate to meet the Copenhagen Accord's overall goal of holding the global temperature increase to below 2°C. Rising demand for fossil fuels would continue to drive up energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions through to 2035, making it all but impossible to achieve the 2°C goal, as the required reductions in emissions after 2020 would be too steep.
In order to have a reasonable chance of achieving the goal, the concentration of greenhouse gases would probably need to be stabilised at a level no higher than 450 ppm CO2-eq. The 450 Scenario describes how the energy sector could evolve were this objective to be achieved.
The lack of ambition in the Copenhagen Accord pledges has increased the estimated cost of reaching the 2°C goal by $1 trillion and made it less likely that the goal will actually be achieved.
Generation requirements for universal electricity access, 2030 (TWh) | ||||
On-grid | Mini-grid | Isolated off-grid | Total | |
| Africa | 196 | 187 | 80 | 463 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 195 | 187 | 80 | 462 |
| Developing Asia | 173 | 206 | 88 | 468 |
| China | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| India | 85 | 112 | 48 | 245 |
| Other Asia | 87 | 94 | 40 | 221 |
| Latin America | 6 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| Developing Countries* | 379 | 399 | 171 | 949 |
| World** | 380 | 400 | 172 | 952 |
| *Includes Middle East Countries; **includes OECD and transition economies | ||||
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